Episode 95: Bayes’ Theorem Explains It All: An Interview with Tom Chivers
Summary
In this episode, Autumn Phaneuf interviews Tom Chivers. He discusses his book ‘Everything is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World’ and the applications of Bayesian statistics in various fields. He explains how Bayesian reasoning can be used to make predictions and evaluate the likelihood of hypotheses. Chivers also touches on the intersection of AI and ethics, particularly in relation to AI-generated art. The conversation explores the history of Bayes’ theorem and its role in science, law, and medicine. Overall, the discussion highlights the power and implications of Bayesian statistics in understanding and navigating the world.
The conversation explores the role of AI in prediction and the importance of Bayesian thinking. It discusses the progress of AI in image classification and the challenges it still faces, such as accurately depicting fine details like hands. The conversation also delves into the topic of predictions going wrong, particularly in the context of conspiracy theories. It highlights the Bayesian nature of human beliefs and the influence of prior probabilities on updating beliefs with new evidence. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the relevance of Bayesian statistics in various fields and the need for beliefs to have probabilities and predictions attached to them.
About Our Guest
Tom Chivers
He’s a science writer. He writes Semafor.com’s daily Flagship email; he also does freelance science writing. Before joining Semafor in September 2022 he was science writer at the i newspaper; before that, the science editor at UnHerd; before that, science writer for BuzzFeed UK; before that, he was a comment and features writer for the Telegraph.
His third book, Everything is Predictable: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World, is out now. My second book, How to Read Numbers: A Guide to Statistics in the News (and Knowing When to Trust Them) was published in 2021; my first book, The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy: Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who Are Trying to Save Humanity’s Future, was published in 2019. He’s written for the Times, the i, the Telegraph, the Observer, the Guardian, politics.co.uk, New Scientist, CNN, Wired, Smithsonian Air & Space, and elsewhere.
He’s won several awards, including the Royal Statistical Society’s award for statistical excellence in journalism (twice, in 2018 and 2020) and the Association of British Science Writers’ science journalist of the year (in 2021). His first book was one of the Times’s science books of the year.
How to Support Us
Stay Connected: Follow Tom Chivers on his latest articles at Semafor. Follow him on Twitter @TomChivers where he always brews up a fun little storm. Find him on his website www.tomchivers.com, and please go buy his latest book “Everything is Predictable” at all major retailers.
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